So Who Really Has the Best College Basketball Conference in the Nation?

This article is meant to start a water cooler discussion among workers who are basketball fans that will last well past their allotted lunch hour. So who really has the best college basketball conference in the nation?

Let us start where the rubber meets the road, with Jeff Sagarin's NCAA Basketball Ratings. Sagarin is an American sports statistician whose ratings have been a regular feature in USA Today since 1985, and have been used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee for March Madness seedings.

In this analysis, only Sagarin's ratings are used because basketball is the best barometer for forecasting what lies ahead. I am only concerned with Sagarin's current Top 25 teams as of Feb. 28, 2009.

For openers, here are Sagarin's Top 25 followed by their season record:

1 North Carolina (24-3), 2 Connecticut (27-2), 3 Pittsburgh (25-3), 4 Duke (24-5), 5 Memphis (26-3), 6 Oklahoma (26-3), 7 Louisville (22-5), 8 Michigan State (22-5), 9 Missouri (24-4), 10 Kansas (23-5), 11 Wake Forest (22-5), 12 Purdue (22-7), 13 Gonzaga (22-5), 14 Clemson (22-6), 15 West Virginia (19-9), 16 UCLA (22-7), 17 Illinois (23-6), 18 Villanova (23-6), 19 Washington (22-7), 20 Marquette (23-5), 21 Xavier (23-5), 22 Arizona State (21-7), 23 BYU (21-6), 24 Syracuse (19-8) and 25 Utah (20-7).

So which conference claims the most teams among Sagarin's Top 25? That would be the Atlantic Coast Conference with 7-North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Villanova, Marquette and Syracuse.

Second is the Big East with 4-Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville and West Virginia. Tied for third with 3 teams each are the Big 12, Big Ten and the Pac 10. The Big 12 has Oklahoma, Missouri and Kansas. The Big Ten has Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois. The Pac 10 has UCLA, Washington and Arizona State.

The Mountain West Conference has BYU and Utah. Conference USA has Memphis, the West Coast Conference has Gonzaga, and the Atlantic 10 has Xavier.

While it may be easy to conclude that the best conference is the Atlantic Coast Conference, there are some other telling considerations.

One factor is where the best of the best, the Top 10 teams, are located. The Atlantic Coast has No. 1 North Carolina and No. 4 Duke. Sounds pretty good, but the Big East has No. 2 Connecticut, No. 3 Pittsburgh and No. 7 Louisville, and the Big 12 has No. 6 Oklahoma, No. 9 Missouri and 10 Kansas. Conference USA has No. 5 Memphis and the Big Ten has No. 8 Michigan State.

From this perspective, it would seem that the Big East trumps the Atlantic Coast, as least in placement.

To state the obvious, you can be assured the best conference is not the Big Ten, Pac 10, Mountain West, Conference USA, the West Coast Conference, Atlantic 10 or Mountain West. All lack the necessary firepower in numbers to claim that distinction.

Another factor is the strength of schedule. So which conference has the most teams in the Top 25 while playing a strength of schedule that also rates among the Top 25 teams nationally?

Would you believe there are only 8 teams that can claim the distinction of being ranked among the Top 25 in both position and strength of schedule? They are:

West Virginia with 6th best strength of schedule nationally, while Duke rates 7th, Michigan State 8th, Syracuse 11th (this is the reason Syracuse is only 19-8 on the season), North Carolina 15th, Washington 19th (even though the Huskies never get any respect from East Coast pundits), Louisville 22nd and Pittsburgh 23rd.

And who has the 8 worst strength of schedules? Try Missouri at 99, Gonzaga 74, Marquette 68, Memphis 64, BYU 59, Xavier 57, Oklahoma 52 and Wake Forest 50.

So Missouri is ranked No. 9 but has the worst strength of schedule among the Top 25 teams. Memphis is ranked No. 5 but has the fourth worst schedule strength at 64.

Six of the Top 10 strength of schedules are in the Atlantic Coast Conference with Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse, and in the Big East with Pittsburgh, Louisville and West Virginia.

The Big 12 does not have a single team in the Top 25 when considering strength of schedule.

And did I mention the Southeastern Conference this year? The SEC does not have a single team among the Top 25 in rankings or strength of schedule. The Big 12 does not have a single team among the Top 25 in strength of schedule.

Some teams with fancy records may not go deep into the NCAA tournament. One sleeper who may go farther than anyone would think is the Washington Huskies, who rank 19th in position and also 19th nationally in strength of schedule.

So who really has the best college basketball conference in the nation? Given the data presented here, it may be a close call between the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Big East, but I would give the nod to the ACC because they have the most teams in the Top 25 with 7, and their strength of schedule ratings are clearly better than those in the Big East.

The conference playoffs are just around the corner, followed of course by March Madness, which may prove or disprove the value of statistical analysis. Let the games begin.

Copyright 2009 Ed Bagley

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